The Signal and the Noise

Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight—a website devoted to statistical analysis of politics, sports, science, economics and culture—and a former writer for The New York Times. In this book, he draws on his own groundbreaking work to examine the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. But if our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can become more accurate over time.