Expert Political Judgment

In this book, Philip E. Tetlock examines the question of what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events. He first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. Tetlock then evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting.